You Must Understand The Rising Logic Of Cotton.

Although the CRB index of the peripheral market has fallen, it has failed to stop the "red hot" of the domestic commodity futures market. On Monday, most varieties of the commodity futures market closed up, gold and silver remained strong, and colored and black rebounded, and agricultural products (12.55 +0.72%, buying) followed suit and the chemical industry was weak and lingering.

Among them, 42 commodities were 33 kinds of red, 3 were flat, and only 6 fell.

Wenhua commodity index rose 0.98% to 126.92, and inflow of 1 billion 810 million yuan.

Recent climate speculation, rainstorm floods and structural supply problems of some varieties make some investors still have a preference for agricultural products.

From the point of view of supply and demand balance, the recent increase in cotton is mainly due to the shortage of domestic supply and the sharp reduction of global stocks.

Judging from the fundamentals of international cotton, cotton output in 2016-2017 has increased, but global cotton stocks have decreased significantly.

In addition, the steady growth of cotton in the ICE period and the sharp rise in cotton prices in India have strongly supported the international cotton price.

And domestic factors support three factors.

The "capricious" rise.

First of all, the output of new cotton is expected to be low due to weather factors.

Secondly, the state store cotton is out of stock, and the proportion of cotton reserves depends on the turnover ratio.

Third, the end of the national cotton reserves in the end of August.

There is a one month gap in the listing, and there is a situation of less supply in the market.

If the late Xinjiang cotton gap is bigger, it may also lead to the mainland cotton spot.

In addition, the demand for imported cotton yarn decreased year by year, making domestic cotton prices favorable.

However, the fact that the terminal demand is poor can not be ignored. In particular, we should pay attention to the change of terminal demand when the off-season comes.

Overall, in the context of the impact of the shortage of cotton supply factors is greater than the downstream terminal demand, and the late weather will form a larger factor of speculation, he expects cotton prices to remain strong in the shock before the new cotton market.

Commercial cotton stocks are in a historical position.

Cotton tension is an important reason why cotton prices tend to rise and fall.

Although the State Cotton store has gradually entered the market since May, the digestion of cotton business inventories by the downstream enterprises has gradually decreased along with the rotation of State Cotton stores, but the inventory of nearly 1 million tons of commodities remains low in history, which is the basic factor leading to the strong rise in cotton prices in the near future.

In addition, with the vigorous development of Xinjiang textile enterprises, the sales of cotton yarn in the territory are considerable, and the demand of Xinjiang textile enterprises for cotton is relatively large. However, due to the large number of Xinjiang cotton pported to the mainland and the limited number of cotton reserves in the territory, the cotton enterprises in Xinjiang are very nervous about cotton production, thus producing an abnormal phenomenon that the price of Xinjiang cotton is higher than the cotton price in the mainland.

Global commodity policy loosening expectations are rising, and the over currency has triggered the rotation of large assets.

Low interest rates systematically lift the valuation center of all large categories of assets, which leads to asset allocation pressure and asset shortage, liquidity overflow and all valuation depressions.

Although 2016 may be the new year of commodities, they are all "buffalo".

The growth of meal futures is larger in the early stage, and it is suggested that there will be a certain level of callback before choosing to enter the market.