According to Chinese customs statistics, from January to September this year, China's clothing (including clothing accessories, the same below) exports totaled US $121.67 billion, down 9.3% year on year. In September, the export of the month was 14.56 billion US dollars, down 8.8% year on year, narrowing the decline from 12.7% in the previous month.
On the whole, in the general environment of sluggish recovery of the world economy, China's foreign trade withstood the pressure, and continued to promote stable scale and excellent structure. As China's economic operation continues to improve and the effectiveness of various practical measures to stabilize foreign trade continues to play, the clothing export trend will tend to be stable and the quality and efficiency will further improve.
01 China's clothing exports from January to September
Export declined in the first three quarters From the perspective of clothing exports in each quarter, clothing exports have continued to grow negatively since the fourth quarter of last year, and the decline in exports from the first quarter to the third quarter of this year has gradually increased. The clothing export continued to decline, on the one hand, due to factors such as sluggish international demand and the intensification of "de Chinesization", on the other hand, due to the high export growth and large base in the first three quarters of 2022, the export in the first three quarters of this year dropped significantly year-on-year. Compared with 2019 before the epidemic, the scale of clothing exports is still at a high level. The accumulated exports in the first three quarters of this year increased by 11.5% compared with the same period of 2019. Due to the low base in the fourth quarter of last year, the export decline in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to narrow. The export amount and unit price of woven and knitted clothing both declined
The year-on-year decline of woven clothing exports was less than that of knitted clothing, and the average export price was also higher than that of knitted clothing. From January to September, the export of woven clothing was 52.12 billion US dollars, down 8.1% year on year; The export volume was 9.35 billion, down 4.5% year on year; Export prices fell 3.6% year on year. The export of knitted apparel reached US $53.71 billion, down 11% year on year; The export volume was 15.86 billion, down 4.8% year on year; The export price dropped 6.4% year on year. The export of clothing accessories reached US $12.16 billion, down 2.9% year on year. Cotton garment exports to the United States, Europe and Japan continued to decline From January to September, China's export of cotton knitted apparel reached US $18.94 billion, down 19% year on year; The export of cotton tatting clothing was 15.59 billion US dollars, down 7.4% year on year. Exports of cotton knitted and woven garments to the United States fell by 28% and 21.4%, to the European Union by 32.1% and 22.1%, and to Japan by 26% and 22.3%, respectively. Chemical fiber clothing has become the dominant product in China's clothing export, with the export amount nearly twice that of cotton clothing, and the decline is lower than that of cotton clothing. From January to September, the export of chemical fiber knitted clothing was 28.34 billion US dollars, down 5.5% year on year; The export of chemical fiber woven clothing was 30.61 billion US dollars, down 7.4% year on year. Export of major categories declined by different extents From January to September, among the major clothing export categories, except for scarves/ties/handkerchiefs, the export of other clothing categories declined by varying degrees. The exports of overcoats/winter clothes, sweaters, underwear/pajamas, sportswear and baby clothes declined by 18%, 13.1%, 10.6%, 14.2% and 23.4% respectively. Export to the "Belt and Road" market grew against the trend China's clothing export market is undergoing structural adjustment. Its exports to traditional markets such as the United States, the European Union and Japan continue to decline, while its exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, South Korea, Russia, Central Asia and Africa continue to grow. From January to September, China's clothing exports to western developed economies (the United States, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand) reached 70.59 billion US dollars, down 16.4% year on year; Accounting for 58%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8 percentage points. Exports to the United States reached 25.91 billion US dollars, down 16.4% year on year; Accounting for 21.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points. Exports to the EU reached 20.83 billion US dollars, down 22% year on year; It accounted for 17.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8 percentage points.
Exports to Japan reached 9.83 billion US dollars, down 10.9% year on year; Accounting for 8.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points. ASEAN is the only positive growth market among China's four major garment export markets. Its exports to ASEAN reached US $11.62 billion, up 1.7% year on year, of which exports to Vietnam and Singapore increased by 57.5% and 23.4% respectively; Accounting for 9.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percentage points.
From the perspective of major regional markets, from January to September, exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" reached 35.06 billion US dollars, up 3.7% year on year. Exports to RCEP member countries reached US $30.94 billion, down 4.1% year on year. Exports to the six GCC countries in the Middle East reached 4.12 billion US dollars, down 6.7% year on year. Exports to Latin America reached US $6.78 billion, down 7.1% year on year. Exports to Africa reached US $6.81 billion, up 15.4% year on year. Exports to the five Central Asian countries reached US $9.68 billion, up 15%, of which exports to Kazakhstan increased significantly by 72.2%.
From the perspective of major single country markets, exports to South Korea and Russia reached US $4.97 billion and 3.25 billion respectively, up 1.2% and 19.9% respectively; Exports to Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada were $4.02 billion, $3.77 billion and $1.96 billion, down 7.8%, 20.6% and 23.1% respectively.
In September, our clothing exports to the United States reached 3.05 billion US dollars, up 4.7% year on year, which shows that in the long process of de stocking in the international market, our exports to the United States began to show signs of stabilizing after the base number of last year was low. The export of eastern provinces and cities declined, and the central and western regions grew rapidly From January to September, the top five export regions in the east all showed a downward trend, and the export of export provinces and cities in the central and western regions grew rapidly. Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Fujian exported 263, 187.5, 153.3, 13.58 and 10.46 billion US dollars respectively, down 4.1%, 14.6%, 18.8%, 6.9% and 16.4% year on year respectively. The top five export provinces and cities accounted for 69.4% of the national total, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The exports of 20 provinces and cities in central and western China totaled US $25.53 billion, up 3.5% year on year, accounting for 21% of the total exports, up 2.6 percentage points. Among them, Xinjiang, Hubei, Guangxi and Sichuan exported US $94.8 billion, US $2.32 billion, US $2.07 billion and US $1.8 billion, up 21.3%, 14.1%, 47.3% and 33.4% respectively. Judging from the monthly export data, Zhejiang's exports have been growing for two consecutive months since August, with a year-on-year growth of 6% in September, and Shandong has resumed positive growth since September, with a growth rate of 5.6%. The export of Guangdong, Jiangsu and Fujian declined significantly in a single month, down 18.2%, 10.7% and 11.5% respectively. China's market share in developed countries continues to decline The United States and Western countries emphasize the "de risk" of the supply chain and reduce the dependence on China's supply chain. The order transfer trend of the United States and Western countries is obvious, and China's clothing import share in the developed countries' market is gradually declining. From January to August, China accounted for 22.4% of America's clothing imports, a year-on-year decrease of 2 percentage points; Its share in the EU was 27.5%, down 1.6 percentage points; Its share in Japan was 51%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; Its share in the UK was 23.1%, a decrease of 2 percentage points; Its share in South Korea was 32.7%, down 0.1 percentage point; Its share in Australia was 58.8%, down 3.4 percentage points; Its share in Canada was 29.9%, down 1.3 percentage points. In the developed countries' market, only Switzerland's market share increased, accounting for 25.9% of Switzerland's imports, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points. 02 International market trends
Imports in developed markets continue to decline Clothing imports from the United States and the European Union continued to decline, with double-digit year-on-year declines. From January to August, the United States imported $61.3 billion of clothing, a year-on-year decrease of 24.1%. EU clothing imports reached US $64.58 billion, down 11.3% year on year. Japan's clothing imports reached US $17.15 billion, down 2.8% year on year. UK clothing imports reached US $14.27 billion, down 13.5% year on year. Canada's clothing imports reached US $8.11 billion, down 7.8% year on year. Australia imported 5.77 billion dollars of clothing, down 9.3% year on year. Among the major developed markets, only South Korea and Switzerland saw a slight increase in their imports of clothing, with imports of US $8.36 billion and US $6.59 billion, up 0.1% and 3.1% respectively year on year. Major garment exporting countries slowed down significantly Affected by the sluggish demand of major international consumer markets, the exports of major clothing suppliers are generally unsatisfactory, and some countries are declining faster than China. According to Vietnamese customs data, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports from January to August this year reached US $22.5 billion, down 14.4% year on year. From January to August, Turkey's clothing export was 12.78 billion US dollars, down 3.6%; India's clothing exports reached US $10.88 billion, down 13.8%; Indonesia's clothing export was 5.85 billion US dollars, down 18.8%. The main clothing supplier countries rely on imported fabrics from China. From January to September, China's fabric exports to surrounding countries continued to decline, which reflects that the exports of the main clothing supplier countries are difficult to improve in the short term. From January to September, exports of fabrics to Vietnam decreased by 12.2%, exports to Bangladesh by 24.1%, exports to Cambodia by 12.3%, exports to Indonesia by 14.6%, and exports to Myanmar by 17.9%. In the latest trade forecast released by the WTO on October 5, the WTO economists' forecast for the growth of global commodity trade in 2023 has been reduced due to the continued downturn in global trade since the fourth quarter of 2022. It is expected that the volume of global commodity trade will grow by 0.8% this year, less than half of the 1.7% growth predicted in April. In the latest October World Economic Outlook Report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the global economic growth would slow down from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, lower than the historical average of 3.8% (2000-20019). The IMF believes that the possibility of a hard landing of the economy has declined, considering that the tension of the US debt ceiling has been resolved, but the risks facing global growth are still downward. The IMF also stressed that the intensification of geographical economic fragmentation may lead to more fluctuations in commodity prices. The sudden escalation of the Palestinian Israeli conflict has led to higher international oil prices and European natural gas prices. In terms of inflation, the IMF expects the global inflation rate to decline steadily, but it is still expected that inflation in most economies will not return to the target level until 2025. The US economy is growing faster Driven by the surge in consumer spending, the U.S. economy grew at its fastest rate in the past two years in the third quarter. The US GDP in the third quarter grew by 2.9% year on year and 1.2% month on month. Household consumption and private investment were the main factors driving the US real GDP in the third quarter to exceed expectations. Excess savings and financial support have boosted the consumption expenditure of American residents. In September, the US consumer price index (CPI) grew 0.4% month on month, but the core inflation pressure slowed steadily. In September, the core CPI rose 4.1% year on year, the smallest increase since September 2021. US wholesale inventories fell for the sixth consecutive month in August. The wholesale inventory of the United States fell 0.1% in August compared with the previous month, and the clothing inventory fell 2.6%. In September, the retail sales of clothing stores in the United States reached US $26.02 billion, down 0.8% from the previous month, the first decline in six months and an increase of 0.1% over the same period last year. In the Christmas holiday shopping season (November 1 to December 31) this year, the sales volume of online holiday in the United States will reach $221.8 billion, up 4.8% year on year. It is expected to drive $17 billion of online spending ($14.5 billion in 2022, up 16.9%), which will strongly boost consumption in this quarter. Weak economic growth in the euro area According to Eurostat data, the euro zone consumer price index rose 2.9% year-on-year in October, down from 4.3% in September, and falling to the lowest level in more than two years. In the third quarter, the gross domestic product of the euro area fell by 0.1% month on month, and the EU GDP grew by 0.1% month on month. The biggest weakness of European economy is Germany, its largest economy. In the third quarter, Germany's economic output shrank by 0.1%, and its GDP barely grew in the past year, which means that there is a real possibility of recession. According to Eurostat data, retail sales in the euro area fell 1.2% month on month in August, of which online retail sales fell 4.5%. High inflation is still inhibiting consumer purchasing power. Japan's inflation continues and consumer spending continues to decline According to the survey of the Ministry of General Affairs of Japan, the real income of wage earners has declined due to the persistent inflation. After deducting the impact of price factors, the actual household consumption in August in Japan has declined for six consecutive months on a year-on-year basis. Experts believe that it is difficult to expect an increase in real consumption when real household income continues to decline. From January to August, Japan's textile and clothing retail sales totaled 5.5 trillion yen, up 0.9% year on year, 22.8% lower than the same period before the epidemic. In August, the retail sales of Japanese textiles and clothing reached 591 billion yen, up 0.5% year on year. Since this year, the recovery of the world economy has been sluggish, and the development of global trade has faced multiple pressures. In particular, the continued downturn in external demand has had a direct impact on clothing exports. The state has introduced a series of policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade, effectively helping enterprises to bail out. At the same time, the majority of enterprises are actively responding to changes in international demand, focusing on orders, optimizing structure, and constantly opening up new markets. Facing difficulties and challenges, on the one hand, China's clothing exports are returning to the downward scale and trend before the epidemic, on the other hand, they have also maintained strong resilience, and the overall international market share has remained stable. In the short term, in the fourth quarter of this year, global economic growth will continue to decline, and international demand will be difficult to improve, but China's comprehensive competitive advantage in export remains stable. In the fourth quarter, the trend of clothing exports has stabilized, and the decline is expected to narrow. First, the year-on-year growth pressure brought by the high base effect of exports last year will improve in the fourth quarter. Second, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated significantly, improving the price competitiveness of China's export products.
In the long run, uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts, sluggish global economic growth, and the US and the West promoting the "de sinicization" of the industrial chain still hamper China's clothing exports. In the face of various challenges, on the one hand, it is necessary to actively explore emerging markets while stabilizing the traditional market; on the other hand, it is necessary to constantly improve the response speed of the supply chain and the integration ability of the value chain, increase the added value of products, and achieve high-quality sustainable development of foreign trade exports.
