China'S Economy Has Attracted Much Attention As An Important Topic Of The National Two Sessions

　　 Q&A on China's Economy at the NPC and CPPCC | What is China's economic growth potential—— One of China's Economic Questions and Answers at the NPC and CPPCC

During the National Two Sessions, China's economy received much attention. Last year, China's economy rebounded on the whole, but some foreign media continued to make noise about the "peak" of China's economic potential and the "peak" of its growth.

Has China's economy really peaked?

"GDP growth of about 5%", the government work report submitted for consideration on the 5th, set out the expected target for the new year, which is the same as the expected target for economic growth last year, and is just a powerful response to the "summit theory".

　　 Perspective growth target: "about 5%" shows enterprising spirit

In the face of a more complex and severe external environment and multiple difficulties in the domestic economy, why still set the growth target at about 5%?

The government work report explained that it considered the need to promote employment and income growth, prevent and resolve risks, and connected with the 14th Five Year Plan and the goal of basically realizing modernization. It also considered the potential for economic growth and supporting conditions.

"The economic growth of about 5% is a goal that can be achieved through hard work, which shows the Chinese government's active and enterprising state." Zhou Li'an, director of the Department of Economics and Management of Peking University, said that this goal is conducive to boosting confidence, guiding expectations, and better cohering development consensus.

The growth target is an important guide for national economic development. Reporters found that from 2003 to 2023, China set targets for economic growth in all other years, and achieved development tasks well, except for special years such as outbreaks, where no specific targets for economic growth were set.

In recent years, China's economy has not been smooth, but has overcome difficulties along the way.

The SARS epidemic in 2003, the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the international financial crisis, and the outbreak of the new coronal epidemic in 2020... In the process of trials and hardships, China has not become the "next collapsing economy" as the foreign media said, but has pushed forward to maintain sustained economic growth and inject impetus into the world economy.

Singing the argument of "downgrading China" has repeatedly met with difficulties in the face of facts.

In the past 10 years, China's economic growth has continued to climb over obstacles: in 2014, its GDP exceeded 60 trillion yuan, in 2017, it exceeded 80 trillion yuan, and in 2020, it reached a "milestone" of one trillion yuan; In the context of the impact of the epidemic, it also broke through the 110 trillion yuan and 120 trillion yuan mark.

The past year is the latest example.

In 2023, China's economy will grow by 5.2%. At comparable prices, the corresponding economic growth will exceed 6 trillion yuan. Ten years ago, it would have taken more than 10% growth to achieve this. In vertical comparison, the growth rate of 5.2% is faster than the average growth rate of 4.5% in the three years of the epidemic; In horizontal comparison, the economic growth rate is 2.5% faster than that of the United States, 0.5% of the euro area and 1.9% of Japan, and the contribution rate to world economic growth is expected to exceed 30%.

China's economy is still an important engine of global economic growth. The website of the Spanish newspaper The Economist recently reported that many people focus on the slowdown of China's GDP growth, but there is a more hopeful side behind the data: the "Asian giant" is still growing at about 5% a year. If this trend continues, China's per capita GDP will increase dramatically.

"If a super large economy can continue to grow at a medium high speed and steadily, it should not be labeled as" top "in any case," said Pan Jiaofeng, president of the Academy of Strategic Consulting and Research of Science and Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

　　 Understanding the economic trend: where is China's medium - and long-term growth potential?

Compared with short-term growth, the outside world is more concerned about the medium and long-term development trend of China's economy. Some people in the US and the West claim that "China's economic growth is sluggish" and "China's prosperity is nearing the end". What is the truth?

KFC has more than 10000 stores in China, and Airbus's first aircraft life cycle service project outside Europe has been put into operation in Chengdu... Foreign funded enterprises have expressed their confidence in the Chinese market with practical actions.

According to the report of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, about half of the surveyed enterprises will maintain their investment scale in China in 2024, and nearly 40% plan to increase their investment in China. According to the survey of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, 59% of the surveyed enterprises regard China as one of the three major investment destinations.

Investment usually considers medium and long-term factors. The trend of foreign investment highlights confidence in the medium and long-term development of China's economy. As Zhan Muren, Chairman and CEO of P&G, said, the challenges in the market are temporary, and "China's long-term opportunities still exist".

In terms of growth alone, compared with the high growth in previous years, China's economic growth has indeed slowed down. As China's economy turns into a high-quality development channel, it emphasizes the effective improvement of "quality" and the reasonable growth of "quantity". It is no longer "heroes in terms of GDP". The economy shifts and decelerates without stalling.

The potential growth rate is widely used to analyze and judge the medium and long-term trend of a country's economic development. Research by many domestic institutions shows that at this stage, China's potential growth rate is between 5% and 6%, and stable economic growth has internal support.

According to Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, from the past development history of catch-up economies such as the "Four Little Dragons in Asia" and high-income countries, when the per capita GDP is between $12000 and $20000, the economic development potential continues to release. At present, China's economy is in the stage of continuous release of growth potential.

"China's economy is in a period of steady recovery and a critical period of structural adjustment. With sufficient endogenous momentum and great potential for sustained growth, there is no 'peak' of economic growth." Tian Xuan, deputy dean of the Wudaokou School of Finance of Tsinghua University, said that the key is to focus on doing your own thing well and effectively respond to risks and challenges.

From the factor conditions that determine the potential growth rate, after years of development and accumulation, China's factor resources are more abundant, providing important support for China's economy to withstand shocks.

China is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories in the UN industrial classification, and the added value of manufacturing accounts for about 30% of the world; It is the world's second largest commodity consumption market and the largest online retail market; The total number of human resources, scientific and technological human resources and R&D personnel ranks first in the world

"Institutional advantages", "demand advantages", "supply advantages" and "talent advantages", the government work report explains the fundamental aspects of China's economy, pointing out that "China's development will certainly break the wind and waves, and the future is foreseeable".

"Why do those who are downplaying the Chinese economy make mistakes again and again? The reason is that they have cognitive biases and misunderstandings about the strength and resilience of the Chinese economy and the law of development." Wang Changlin, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that China is a large economy, and the socialist system with Chinese characteristics has unique advantages in dealing with major risks and challenges, China's economy has a strong ability to withstand shocks and self stabilize and self repair. During the critical period of China's transition to high-quality development, it is inevitable that China will encounter various problems, challenges, and even necessary pains. However, China's economic development has confidence, advantages, and more opportunities, and the long-term trend of improvement will not change.

　 Unleashing growth potential: boosting confidence and taking action first

During the Spring Festival holiday in the Year of the Dragon, the vitality of China's consumer market bloomed: 474 million domestic tourist trips, a 19% increase compared with the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis, and the box office of films during the Spring Festival exceeded 8 billion yuan, a record in the same period.

The website of Lianhe Morning Post in Singapore recently cited experts' opinions on the topic of "Hot Spring Festival Consumption in China's Economy?", pointing out that after a year of post epidemic repair, China's economy is standing at a confidence turning point.

At present, China's economic development does face some difficulties and challenges:

The growth momentum of the world economy is insufficient, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment are rising; The effective domestic demand is insufficient, some industries have overcapacity, social expectations are weak, some small and medium-sized enterprises are difficult to operate, and total employment pressure and structural contradictions coexist.

However, overall judgment: strategic opportunities and risk challenges coexist, and the favorable conditions for China's economic development are stronger than the unfavorable factors.

"The bright future of China's economy is not calculated, but worked out." Zhou Li'an, a member of the committee, said that we should seize the favorable opportunity, make good use of the favorable conditions, do more to boost confidence and expectations, and strive to transform development potential into development strength.

Opening the government work report, "vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating the development of new quality productivity" was placed at the top of this year's top ten tasks.

"This is a key move to stimulate the potential and reshape the momentum of China's economy." Representative Xu Guanju, the chairman of Transfertiliser Group, said that we should adhere to the real economy as the foundation, scientific and technological innovation as the core, and industrial upgrading as the direction, speed up the cultivation of new quality productivity, and inject strong impetus into the high-quality development of China's economy.

We will thoroughly implement the strategy of revitalizing the country through science and education, focus on expanding domestic demand, unswervingly deepen reform, effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and effectively guarantee and improve people's livelihood... We will strive to achieve the goals and tasks of the year in a clear "construction drawing" context.

"We should inspire our spirit, work hard, and strive to achieve results as soon as possible." Yang Dayong, mayor of Baicheng City, Jilin Province, said that we should focus on the expectations of enterprises and the masses, and work hard to promote China's economy to continue to improve and stabilize.

(Source: Xinhua News Agency)