2010, The Impact Of RMB Appreciation Is Deep And Deep.

　　2010年4月13日，人民币一年期远期合约报6.6361，创下近10个月的历史新高，不得不让人们开始考虑人民币会在短期内大幅度升值的可能性。尽管在当月13日国家主席胡锦涛与美国总统奥巴马会晤时表示，人民币汇率形成机制改革不会在外部压力下加以推进。不过，市场对于人民币升值的预期并没有因此受到影响。由此看来人民币升值将在全国各行各业兴起的“惊涛骇浪”并非空穴来风。

When the RMB appreciates, the major industries in China will face several unhappy situations, especially the labor-intensive industries such as sweater industry. According to the experts' prediction, if the appreciation rate of RMB exceeds 6%, nearly half of the sweater enterprises will be faced with the fate of bankruptcy. This prediction has made the sweater industry panic, and many people in the sweater blog have published articles. The prospect is not optimistic.

The author here only gives some rough opinions on the impact of RMB appreciation on the development of sweater industry.

First of all, most of the sweater industry orders are from abroad, that is, most of the sweaters are exported, so the appreciation of the renminbi is closely related to the sweater industry.

It is reported that in the southern sweater intensive enterprises in Dalang Town, the foreign trade enterprises there, see a lot of foreign trade orders is not joy, instead began to frown, because if a lot of orders, and the RMB appreciation, their choice is to lose or default part of the order.

Secondly, the appreciation of the RMB will lead to the expansion of the domestic sweater industry, because the trade sheet of sweater industry is far greater than the domestic sales list. With the appreciation of the renminbi, many foreign trade companies have to turn the market to the domestic market under the pressure of survival. As most enterprises will use this way to ease the trauma of the appreciation of the renminbi, it will lead to the expansion of the domestic market of the sweater industry, which will affect the long-term development of the whole sweater industry in the long run.

In addition, after the Spring Festival of 2010, the main export areas of sweaters, such as southeastern coastal areas, all appeared "labor shortage" to varying degrees. The solution to this problem is to increase the personal benefits of factories. This means that the profit margins of the sweater industry originally located in 3%-5% are still declining.

Although the main export market of sweaters has been showing signs of warming after April, it is now facing the trend that the RMB will soon appreciate. This series of problems will undoubtedly bring heavy losses to the small and medium-sized enterprises in the sweater industry.