CITIC Futures: Crude Oil Has Risen &Nbsp, PTA Or Breaking Resistance.

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In accordance with the requirements of the State Council on Further Strengthening the work to ensure the implementation of the "11th Five-Year energy saving and emission reduction targets" (National Development [2010] 12) and the national teleconference meeting of the power peak rush summer television conference, combined with the actual situation of electricity supply and demand gap in Zhejiang this summer, the province decided to implement the control of electricity consumption for high energy consumption and high emission enterprises during the summer rush hour.

During the summer peak period from the peak to the peak (July 1st -9 13), 15 days are divided into 5 periods.

In this regard, the research group of chemical industry and trade chemical fiber carried out a week long survey of related industries for a long time. The following are the details:

Polyester upstream and downstream:

Zhejiang is the most important PTA production area in China. It occupies 27% of the country's PTA production capacity, including 1 million 800 thousand tons / year in the Far East Shaoxing, 1 million 200 thousand tons / year in Yisheng Ningbo, 800 thousand tons per year in Ningbo and 600 thousand tons / PTA in Ningbo MITSUBISHI, with a total capacity of 4 million 200 thousand tons / year.

It is understood that the larger scale of PTA industry does not belong to the high energy consumption and high pollution industries, and contributes greatly to the whole GDP of Zhejiang province. Even some PTA factories are equipped with power generation units. Therefore, it is very likely that PTA manufacturers will not be included in the category of power restriction and production reduction.

At present, the overall profitability of the PTA industry is relatively good. The profit margin in the first half of this year is as high as 1150 yuan / ton.

In terms of ethylene glycol and PX, the main ethylene plant in Zhejiang is Zhenhai Refining and chemical plant. It has 650 thousand tons / year ethylene glycol unit and 530 thousand tons / year PX plant.

Since integrated devices are equipped with utility projects, they may not need to enter the category of emission reduction.

Polyester downstream: most polyester factories in Zhejiang indicate that there may be plans to reduce load or stop maintenance within the next three months.

It is understood that the emission reduction plan according to Dachang reported to the provincial government, the small factory reported the local rules in progress.

In the interview, it is also found that the local requirements are different. For example, the Xiaoshan area is relatively loose, and the Shaoxing area is relatively strict. In the Shaoxing area, the current planned parking device has the world's 400 thousand ton / year polymerization device since August 1st. The inspection and maintenance for 15 days in August 1st, the vertical and horizontal 400 thousand ton / year polymerization device stopped for 15 days.

Some manufacturers also said that the relevant meetings have been held, such as Jin Xin and Heng Yi. Although no specific burden reduction and time have been worked out, they will eventually be carried out according to the government's requirements.

Some of the major manufacturers have implemented lightening operations, mostly for the parking of rear roads, elastic machines and slicing production lines.

Downstream of acrylonitrile section:

The introduction of Zhejiang's power restriction and emission reduction regulations has little impact on acrylonitrile related industries.

The downstream acrylic enterprises, only one of the Hangzhou Bay acrylic fiber plant, was included in the power limit list. The production capacity was 60 thousand tons / year. According to the manufacturer's name or the scheduled maintenance in July, the specific time is not yet fixed.

Another acrylic fiber plant in Zhejiang, which was restarted in March this year, was not included in the power limit list of Ningbo new China acrylic fiber plant. The factory started its load at about 6 per cent.

Downstream ABS plant, Ningbo LG Yongxing 600 thousand tons / year and Taiwan Ningbo 300 thousand tons / year ABS device, according to the current understanding of the situation, has not been affected; downstream amide factory, because it does not belong to the high energy consumption, high emission industry, and by the high cost of raw materials, the impact of the recent load has not been high, the power limit has little effect.

Caprolactam downstream:

Zhejiang's energy saving and emission reduction list includes 16 nylon manufacturers, including 10 nylon silk and 6 manufacturers.

At present, the 10 Jinnan civilian silk manufacturers, Zhejiang Jinsheng plan, from July 15th to July 20th, took the lead in reducing and stopping some devices and overhauled them, followed by parking inspection of the remaining devices between August 1st and August 15th.

Zhejiang Yaxing current plant operating rate dropped to about 70%, the specific energy conservation and emission reduction plan is still in the deliberation stage.

Other manufacturers have no specific plans to stop production.

6 chips and cord fabric manufacturers, except for the Hongfu nylon, which is in the parking repair period, said that the 20-30 day parking inspection can be listed in the energy conservation and emission reduction plan. Most of the polymerization factories still have no specific plans to stop production.

All the manufacturers said that since the polymerization device is different from the downstream civil silk device, it can not stop immediately, only to stop continuously. Therefore, it is expected that the polymerization enterprise can only choose 15 days of continuous parking in addition to reducing production capacity to achieve electricity saving targets.