2010 How Does The Price Of Spring Cocoon Start And How To Go On?

　　 Affected by the world economic environment, exports, domestic economic environment and policies, although the cocoon silk market in 2010 rose unilaterally in most of the time, the trend of the 2011 cocoon silk market still concealed many uncertain factors.

This year spring cocoon In this regard, the author makes a simple analysis of the previous stage of silk export, domestic consumption environment and the macroeconomic situation of the state, and explores the possible positioning of this spring cocoon price.

The main importing state of the silk is to replenishment or export.

According to the customs statistics of China, sericulture exported 17 thousand and 400 tons in 2010, down 14.83% from the same period last year. The average unit price was 32.74 US dollars / kg, an increase of 42.9% over the same period last year. 1-11. The 71 million 680 thousand package of silk clothing exports decreased by 9.38% compared with the same period last year, and the average unit price was 14.09 US dollars / suite, an increase of 6.75% over the same period last year. Silk silk exports 245 million meters, an increase of 1.94% over the same period, and the average unit price is 3.6 US dollars / meter, up 23.03% over the same period last year. The import volume of the major importers of silk goods has been greatly reduced due to the impact of the overall price increase.

Foreign importers, whose price of cocoon silk is rising unilaterally, will have to reduce their imports of silk raw materials and products. The reduction in imports in 2010 will inevitably lead to a large gap in their inventory. China's silk exports account for over 70% of the world's total. For countries with import demand, there are no more options for imports. There may be a certain amount of replenishment needs for importing Silk raw materials and products this year. Though affected by the big economic environment, consumption will not be fully recovered in a short time, but it is possible for the importing countries to replenish inventory to maintain the continuity of production and consumption. 2010 Cocoon silk The industry is pushing the price down from the upstream, and the price of upstream raw materials this year will probably be maintained at a high price by export. Under this anticipated premise, the possibility of the decline of spring cocoon prices will be weakened this year.

Index significance of national reserve silk price

In order to ensure the stability of production and export order, the Ministry of Commerce in 2010 issued five batches of cocoon silk plant to 1912.6 tons of reserve plant silk. In October 27th, a total of 29 enterprises were successful in bidding, and the total amount of actual bidding was 605.57 tons, and the average bidding price of reserve silk was 303 thousand and 272 yuan / ton.

From last year's cocoon silk production plant, we can see two messages. One is the fast rising speed of the authorities last year. Cocoon filament The price is regulated by economic means, and the price of cocoon silk is relatively stable. The two is the average bidding price of the reserve plant over 300 thousand yuan, to some extent, including the recognition of the parties including the tendering party, and the 18-22 yuan for the old yellow calendar called the reasonable interval price of raw silk needs to be updated.

The stability of a trade is fundamental and development is the goal. The stability of the cocoon and silk industry is to avoid a sharp rise and fall. This year is the key year. Seeking stability at a higher price is what the entire silk industry wants. It is also the embodiment of the state's positioning of the price of agricultural products. In the purchase price of spring cocoons, all aspects must take corresponding measures to strive for stability.

Macroeconomic situation: greater inflation pressure

In 2010, the GDP of 397983 billion yuan was calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 10.3% over the previous year. The rate of increase was 1.1 percentage points faster than that of last year. Consumer prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in 2010. The purchase price of raw materials, fuels and power increased 9.6% year-on-year, up 9.5% in December, rising 1.1% over the same period. Looking at the CPI data in 2010, the data in the first half of the year were basically controlled within 3%. In July, the red line was 3.3%, which has been high since then, reaching 5.1% in November. In July, it was also a critical period for the rapid growth of cocoon yarn prices. The trend of cocoon silk price was almost parallel to that of CPI data, which partly explained the role of inflation and cocoon silk price pushing each other.

Economic experts predict that the pressure of price rise will be greater in the first quarter of 2011, and may exceed 6% in a single month. "Because inflation is expected to increase after the formation of inflation expectations, and the 1-2 month of 2011 will be the traditional Spring Festival period in China. Holiday demand will drive up the price of some products. It is estimated that the annual increase will be 4.5%. In the first half of the year, some months will reach 5% or even 6%. Inflation in the second half of this year is likely to receded. According to past experience, every CPI cycle is about 25 months. Now it has been 18 months ago.

Qian Keming, the Standing Committee of the CPPCC National Committee and director of the market and economic information division of the Ministry of agriculture, answered the question of "how to scientifically plan agriculture, rural development, increase farmers' income and let people's livelihood benefit"? According to estimates, the annual price increase of agricultural products is 10%, which is normal. {page_break}

The economic recovery in Europe and the United States is staggering, and there are still many uncertainties in the domestic economic environment. At present, though we can analyze and predict the possible situation of spring cocoon production and circulation from the current environment. But now there is still a period from spring cocoon to market. All kinds of factors may change. Let's pay close attention to the next silkworm production.