In August, CPI Continued To Break 6&Nbsp; Experts Said The Rise In Meat Prices Was Not The Culprit Of Inflation.

Food prices are still rising * CPI is "pork index".

Will the piglet pull again?

This year, pork prices all the way.

Rice oil eggs are everywhere.

Since the beginning of this year, for people who regularly buy household products, what is more troubling than food prices is rising. Besides pork is becoming more and more expensive, mutton, rice, oil and so on are rising prices.

In the face of the slow growth of spending every month, netizens create "pig strong", "oil he go" and other popular words to make a helpless ridicule.

Food prices are still rising.

According to the monitoring system of the national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural price quotations, compared with the previous day, the price of pork and eggs increased; the price of aquatic products decreased; the prices of edible oil, beef, mutton, vegetables and fruits changed slightly; the prices of finished grain increased steadily; the prices of dairy products were basically stable in August 19th.

Prior to July, CPI rose 6.5%.

Among them, the price level of food prices affected the price level rose by about 4.38 percentage points, although pork prices fell, but still

Why does pork price affect CPI?

The industry believes that the possible reasons include at least two aspects: first, the recent surge in pork prices, the two is the higher proportion of pork prices in the CPI.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of macroeconomic research of the State Council's development research center, said that the current round of rising food prices, including pork prices, has obvious characteristics of inflation.

"In the first half of 2010, meat prices continued to decline, seriously affecting the enthusiasm of pig raising, resulting in insufficient market supply.

Since the second half of 2010, pork prices have started to pick up, and pork prices have entered the track of synchronous rise with CPI.

Zhang Liqun told our reporter.

Rising meat prices are not the culprit of inflation.

For this round of inflation, many people are targeting the price of agricultural products, especially pork prices, which constitute the "most primitive driving force" of the current inflation.

However, Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, did not agree with him. He told our reporter: "because of the weight of pork prices in CPI, the price increase will certainly push up the CPI value. But fundamentally speaking, the rise in pork prices is only a prominent phenomenon in inflation, which can only affect the level of the inflation rate, but not the cause of inflation.

From a deeper perspective, inflation is also due to the large volume of currency issuance, excessive economic growth and excessive investment, as well as international import factors.

"The recent rise in pork prices is somewhat rigid, mainly because the rapid economic growth and rapid changes in the consumption structure of residents have led to a significant increase in pork consumption.

In addition, in recent years, rising grain prices, rising labor costs and inadequate construction of urban food distribution system have also reflected the rise in pork prices.

Zhang Liqun said.

Will the price rise of pork and other foods necessarily bring up the price of other products?

According to Zhang Liqun analysis, the spillover effect of food price increase is mainly reflected in the wage cost, but it does not necessarily promote the price rise of downstream products. Some industries can resolve the cost of wage increase through technological progress, and will not necessarily follow the price increase.

For example, some electronic technology products do not go up with the price of meat.

In August, CPI may still be "over 6".

Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission's price department, said earlier that from the perspective of cyclical fluctuations, the price rise of this round has almost turned to an inflection point.

Many analysts believe that, from the current point of view, with the continuous increase in pig stock, pork supply has gone up and prices have stabilized. However, because of the high grain prices, the cost of farming has not declined. These factors determine the short-term pullback of pork prices.

At the same time, the long-term growth of demand may also cause a big fluctuation in pork prices.

Pork prices may still have a big impact on the short term, especially the CPI in August.

Zhang Liqun believes that it is now certain that CPI will fall back in the second half of the year, but it is hard to predict the increase in CPI in August.

For pork prices, Zhang Liqun believes that we should see that the recovery of pig production itself has a cyclical nature.

Compared with the previous round of pork price rise, the current meat price rise is much milder and the time will be relatively short. It is expected that this will be stable after September and October this year, and the impact of pork prices on CPI will also be smaller. This is the result of the pig production rule.

Lian Ping said that because pork prices may remain high in the short term, we expect that the CPI will have a turning point in the three or four quarter, but CPI in August will probably remain at a high level of more than 6%.