Labor Shortage, Electricity Shortage And Oil Shortage Hit &Nbsp; How To Face More Times Of "Shortage"?

From the beginning of the labor shortage in the early years to the electricity shortage that swept across the country in April and throughout the year, there are everywhere.

In such a "barren" year, people can not help but ask, how can we avoid some "shortage" always coming back?

"Order shortage" and "labor shortage" superimpose labor-intensive enterprises being tested.

In recent years, the export situation in China is not optimistic. Some industries, especially textile, clothing, toys, shoes and hats and other labor intensive industries, are still facing difficulties in reducing orders, increasing orders, and increasing the proportion of short, single and small ones. At the same time, the manufacturing industry in eastern coastal areas of China, represented by the Pearl River Delta region, is facing difficulties in recruitment and labor shortage.

Many enterprises and market participants believe that behind the abnormal superposition of "double famine" is the grim reality of China's manufacturing industry, especially the traditional labor intensive industries upgrading and pformation, which is facing the slowdown of the global economic recovery.

"Order rhythm disorder" exacerbated "labor shortage"

In recent years, due to the situation at home and abroad, recruitment difficulties and labor shortage have not been a rare phenomenon. However, some enterprises are surprised that although the number of overseas orders taken by enterprises has not increased or even declined this year, the difficulty of recruiting workers has not improved. This is in sharp contrast to the past situation of excessive orders, tight employment and fewer orders.

"After 18 years of business, now is the most confused time."

Guo Xianhua, executive deputy general manager of Dongyuan kitchen utensils company in Shunde, Guangdong, started from a husband and wife store.

As a small and medium-sized labor-intensive enterprise with no more than 500 workers, he now faces the plight of lack of people in the busy season. The reason is that he has a direct relationship with the "complete rhythm of the order".

"In the past, when the European and American economy was normal, the market situation was predictable on both sides of manufacture and sale. Therefore, the employment was clear and bright, and the enterprises could adapt and adjust. The shortage of labor was only a temporary phenomenon. But this year, international orders are becoming shorter and more urgent, and German companies have placed orders for 100 products.

Under such circumstances, enterprises simply can not support people, and they dare not raise people. As a result, the lack of work has become a norm.

Guo Xianhua said.

According to the analysis of enterprises, because the main export market status has not changed, the recent crisis in Europe and the United States is likely to aggravate the fluctuation of labor and employment in China and even create a shortage of labor shortage this winter and spring.

Cao Xiaojian, deputy general manager of Limited by Share Ltd, [7.73, Jiangsu, said that since the beginning of this year, Europe and the United States have been constrained by their slow economic recovery, and buyers' purchasing intentions have been very weak. Orders are insufficient, forcing a considerable number of export enterprises in China to maintain a low level of employment, while also greatly reducing the adjustment and adaptability of the manufacturing chain.

"With the depletion of inventory, the consumption of consumer goods in the US and Europe is likely to have a gap period in the next spring, and local buyers will not rule out the possibility of adding a large number of urgent and short lists to Chinese enterprises, plus the coming Spring Festival next year, when the urgent shortage of Chinese enterprises is increasing."

He said.

Transfer or pformation to test labor-intensive enterprises

Faced with the superposition of "order shortage" and "labor shortage", some experts and market participants believe that, influenced by many domestic factors, it is difficult for traditional labor-intensive enterprises to respond simply by raising wages and increasing welfare.

Wu Yingxi, deputy director of the business liaison office of the Shandong Provincial Department of Commerce, which has long followed the business and market dynamics, said that the causes of "labor shortage" are complex, and that the employment orientation of the new generation of migrant workers has changed dramatically, which is one of the important factors.

From the perspective of Shandong's large labor force Province, young "post-90s" migrant workers appear to be more likely to be redundant in the cities, unwilling to work in the countryside, preferring to get low wages in the service industry, unwilling to earn overtime pay in the manufacturing industry, preferring to struggle in cities and unwilling to enjoy in the countryside.

The "shortage of orders" also makes China's large number of traditional processing export enterprises' ability to "raise prices" seriously limited.

In the 110th Canton Fair held from October to November, many enterprises reflected that due to the weak international demand, merchants in Europe and America generally did not want to raise their prices substantially, and the cost of raw materials increased. The space for enterprises to raise labor prices was more and more restricted.

At present, the employment of traditional labor intensive enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta region has begun to appear "aging" demand.

Many enterprises have changed their employment habits to the "literacy workers" aged 35 to 50 years old, and men and women are not restricted.

Wang Hongli, Vice Minister of production and Protection Department of Shenzhen Federation of trade unions, believes that with the approaching of the aging society, the total amount of labor supply in China will gradually decrease in the future. Expanding the age range of employment can not fundamentally solve the problem. Enterprises should either upgrade or pfer, and there is no other way out.

Must follow the follow-up effect of labor intensive industry pformation

However, the same way, different industries, the choice may be completely different.

Some market participants believe that China's low-end production capacity in some labor-intensive industries dominated by consumer goods such as shoes, clothing, bags and so on will be pferred overseas; while electronic consumer enterprises may shift to the central and western parts of the country; compared with the large and medium-sized private enterprises, the pfer of foreign enterprises will be more powerful, and the desire for pformation of the former will be more intense.

Cao Xiaojian said that from the perspective of international industrial pfer, due to the high cost of pportation, textile, clothing, shoes and other traditional labor-intensive industries generally set up factories in coastal areas. "From the current situation, the trend of accelerating the pfer of these industries from China to the coastal areas of neighboring countries and regions is more obvious.

In the future, the competitiveness of Chinese local enterprises in these industries will be mainly reflected in the high-end products. "

In addition, because a considerable part of the capacity of these industries is completed by multinational enterprises, these factories are obviously constrained by international capital demand and are more sensitive to the increase of labor costs. Therefore, the speed of pferring to Vietnam and India is also accelerating. Nike's production capacity in Vietnam is more than China's example.

At the same time, some private enterprises have chosen the path of upgrading and pformation.

Take the Guangdong Nanhai Zhao Xin group as an example, the firm resolutely closed its 4 shoe factories and plunge into the new energy industry. The responsible person of the enterprise said that only by "reluctantly giving up" can enterprises find their way out in the dual attack of "order shortage" and "labor shortage".

Looking forward to the future, whether industrial upgrading, enterprise pformation and pfer can really solve the employment and employment situation behind the "labor shortage" and change the "shock wave" are the concerns of many people.

Some experts say that the focus of guiding the industrial pformation and upgrading is placed on the enterprises. There is not much consideration for the employment needs and ideas of the workers. "It is very likely that the workers may not be willing to follow the enterprise after the pfer of the enterprises, and the enterprises have upgraded the unsynchronized situation that the workers may not" upgrade ".

In addition, in the next period of time, the volatility of labor may be further increased. If the policy is not taken into consideration, it is likely that the laborers' surplus in the coastal areas will be aggravated and the social pressure can not be underestimated. "

Why are some "famine" repeating?

Careful people will find that many kinds of "shortage" appear this year. They are not the first time to appear. Most of them are new phenomena and new problems, which need new ways to deal with them.

For example, the "labor shortage" concentrated at the beginning of the year.

Different from previous years in eastern coastal areas, this year's "labor shortage" extends to many provinces in the mainland. It seems that the labor supply is insufficient. It actually exposes the urban and rural social security, the gap between public services, and the unfair situation that migrant workers are generally suffering from low wages, large labor intensity and difficult rights protection.

Some commentaries have pointed out that in a certain sense, "labor shortage" is actually a "shortage of fair system". If the rural social security and public services are not kept up as soon as possible, the urbanization process can not make the rural population pfer to the urban areas to "take root" and relieve their worries.

For example, this year, especially the small and medium enterprises "money shortage".

Under the special background of resisting inflation as the primary task, monetary and credit policies are tightening up, and financing difficulties of SMEs are further highlighted. Fortunately, relevant departments have introduced a series of measures to support small business development on the basis of investigation, and the problem of corporate financing is being alleviated.

However, while giving small and medium enterprises "blood pfusion", they should break the monopoly of the industry and give more opportunities for SMEs to enter the industry in order to allow the capital to enter the areas that should be entered, so as to solve the problem of uneven distribution of funds.

Compared with the "shortage" that has already been alleviated, what is more worrying is those "old and old shortage". For example, since 2004, "power shortage" and "oil shortage" have appeared almost every year.

Lin Boqiang, director of the energy economics research center of the energy economist and Xiamen University, seems to be different from the gas shortage to the oil shortage to the frequent coal shortage and electricity shortage this year, but it can be attributed to the lagging pformation of the economic development mode and the market failure under the administrative order.

I am afraid that "shortage" is not just resources, but the desire, sincerity and courage to solve problems.

How to solve the problem of "going back to famine"

Near the end of the year, the sound of "famine" still linger on.

According to China electric power forecast, the power supply and demand situation in the whole country is generally tight this winter and next spring, and the largest power gap will reach 30 million kilowatts to 40 million kilowatts.

At the same time, market monitoring data show that only about 52% of the private gas stations in China can guarantee normal sales, which means that about 48% of private gas stations still have no oil to sell.

"Taking into account the rapid growth of China's economy and various reasons, the future electricity shortage and oil shortage will still be difficult to avoid. What we need to study is how to control the shortage of electricity and oil in a shorter time and a smaller range."

In Lin Boqiang's view, there are obvious human factors in the current oil shortage and electricity shortage, and the root cause is that the energy price mechanism has not been straightened out.

Lin Boqiang pointed out that in order to solve the energy shortage problem, in the long run, we should reform the price mechanism, promote the integration of coal and electricity, and establish a more effective oil price mechanism to make it more responsive to market supply and demand.

However, the process is very difficult.

As for the "labor shortage", Sun Lijian, a well-known economist and vice president of the school of economics, Fudan University, said that the shortage of labor shortages has already been alleviated due to the slowdown in economic growth and the slowdown in export orders.

However, the development of various regions is uneven, the industry is still at a low end and inefficient investment in scale still exists.

Sun Lijian pointed out that the root of the "shortage" lies in the fact that various mechanisms have not been straightened out, coupled with the high prices this year, the complex economic situation at home and abroad, and the decline in the profitability of enterprises.

"As long as the economic development mode is lagging behind and the economic development is not balanced, the various mechanisms such as price and interest rate have not been straightened out," barren "will still be reproduced in a large scale.

Sun Lijian said.