The Balance Of Payments Report Suggests That The Recent Devaluation Of The Renminbi Is A Rainy Day.

< p > with the release of the balance of payments report issued by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange yesterday, the RMB unexpectedly increased by more than 3% last year. At last, it became no longer difficult to understand because of the obvious inflow of foreign capital into the country. In 2013,

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< p > but perhaps more importantly, with the report issued by the State Administration of foreign exchange, there is a most authoritative explanation for the recent devaluation of the renminbi, that is, the recent devaluation is a precautionary measure for regulators.

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< p > it is obvious that the state a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign exchange < /a > Bureau has made such a statement about the surge in capital and financial projects last year, that is, the situation of capital inflow. Under the environment of global liquidity and low interest rate of main currencies, the spread of carry trade has intensified, exacerbating the imbalance between China's foreign exchange supply and demand and accumulating the risk of "overshoot" of the RMB exchange rate.

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< p > in reporter's memory, compared with RMB's basically balanced and reasonable level, regulators say that the RMB exchange rate "overshoot" is rare.

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< p > How did the RMB overshoot last year? Obviously, it is "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "RMB" /a "unexpectedly high appreciation.

After all, last year, the economic situation was not good enough. The parties once worried that the economy would fall below the expected growth target of 7.5%. However, the yuan has appreciated by more than 3% throughout the whole year.

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What is the appreciation rate of RMB P in 2012? 0.25%.

In 2013, it was 12 times more than that in 2012.

Last year's economic situation, and the shortage of money in the middle of the year, and so on, have been widely called out by all parties, or even called "appreciation of RMB" last year.

Of course, the market is not so surprising, many market participants have long been analyzed, because the Fed's withdrawal from quantitative easing policy led to cross-border capital outflow of emerging markets, and some of the capital flows into China, thus promoting a significant appreciation of the renminbi.

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< p > in yesterday's report, there was a special column "4", and the State Administration of foreign exchange analyzed "the differentiation of emerging market currencies in 2013".

The general idea is that, as mentioned earlier, the Fed's withdrawal from quantitative easing policy has caused some emerging market currencies to suffer. In 2014, under the superposition of various uncertainties in the internal and external environment, the emerging market currencies may face greater volatility pressure.

However, everyone will pay attention to the following statement: "the sooner the structural adjustment is in place and the risk is clear enough, the sooner the reality turning point from weakness to strength will be ushered in."

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< p > at this point, the regulatory thinking of this year's "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "/a" trend may have been too clear to be clear.

In contrast, looking back at the trend map of the renminbi since this year, it has been wildly derogatory since its appreciation to the highest point in January 14th. Yesterday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar hit a 6.1557 low of nearly 6 months.

But all this may be in the hands of regulators, which is a precautionary measure for regulators.

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< p > it is worth mentioning that, in fact, the reporter said that the regulatory authorities' devaluation of the renminbi might not be appropriate. After all, with the pressure of capital outflow, the depreciation of the RMB will have the market function.

In yesterday's revenue and expenditure report, it was also clearly pointed out that in response to cross-border capital fluctuations, the current focus of China's foreign exchange market reform is to "enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate and establish a sound and sustainable international balance of payments market regulation mechanism".

In the past March 15th, the central bank has announced that the volatility of the RMB dollar spot exchange rate to the central parity of RMB will be expanded from 1% to 2%. Over the past period, the RMB has also fluctuated significantly.

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P, perhaps, it is time for us to consider another question: is the turning point of the weakening of the renminbi approaching? < /p >