March Cross-Border Capital Outflow Pressure Pulse Amplification

Guan Tao, director of the balance of Payments Division of the foreign exchange bureau, said that there was indeed a phenomenon of capital outflow. Especially in March, with the sharp drop in the favorable balance of trade and the superposition of internal and external factors, the pressure of cross-border capital outflow was amplified.

Data show that in March, the deficit in bank sales and foreign exchange increased to US $66 billion, a negative growth for eighth consecutive months. In the 1 and February, the deficit in foreign exchange settlement was 8 billion 200 million US dollars and 17 billion 200 million US dollars respectively. In March, cross-border capital flows fluctuated sharply. In the first quarter, excluding exchange rate factors, bank settlement decreased by 20% compared with the same period last year, while sales and sales increased by 41%, and foreign exchange settlement deficit was $91 billion 400 million, an increase of 97% over the four quarter of 2014.

Guan Tao explained that the current capital outflow is expected to be adjusted. The main channel is still the deleveraging of foreign exchange in the people and debt. It can not simply be equated with illegal and covert capital flight. Most of the transactions have a legally compliant trade and investment background.

"At present, the downward pressure on domestic economy is relatively large, the world economy is in deep adjustment, and the US dollar exchange rate continues to strengthen. These factors are affecting domestic enterprises and individuals to continue the financial operation of" asset denominated foreign currency and debt deleveraging "since last year, resulting in the decrease in long-term settlement and increase in foreign exchange purchase. Guan Tao said.

Although the first quarter Capital outflow Pressure is high, but tube Tao is still affordable. Guan Tao believes that the balance of payments is an important goal of macroeconomic regulation and control. However, the balance of payments does not mean that the balance of payments is zero and the difference is zero. Within a certain scale, the surplus or deficit is a balanced category. In fact, even before RMB exchange rate Transaction price To reach or close to the upper limit of floating interval, the market supply of foreign exchange is still sufficient, and there is no market panic.

For the future trend of cross-border capital flows in China, Guan Tao believes that there will still be a trend of concussion. On the one hand, if the factors leading to capital outflow in the first quarter continue to play a role, the future may promote the continuation of cross-border capital outflow in China. On the other hand, with the gradual release of dividends from the reform and opening up policy and the gradual improvement of the national fine-tuning measures, such factors will form an important support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the balance of payments.

"An important reason for the rapid growth of foreign exchange purchase in recent years is that some enterprises purchase foreign exchange ahead of time to avoid exchange rate risk, that is, preventive purchase of foreign exchange. There is a real demand for external payment in the future, and this part of the demand is released ahead of schedule. In fact, since the late March, with the improvement of internal and external environment, the domestic demand and supply gap of foreign exchange has rapidly converged, and the RMB exchange rate difference between China and foreign countries has also dropped sharply. Guan Tao said.