Large Influx Of A Shares Into Two Days Into 24 Billion

　　 Capital investment through the Shanghai stock market to rush to raise A shares, large cap stocks poured into 24 billion over two days

In the short term, the rising stock market and bull market continue to look at the current domestic economy. Will there be a bubble? "For any market that rises sharply in the near future, adjustment is inevitable. The A share market is no exception, but in general, A shares have no bubbles." Zhu Yue, chief executive of China's largest Asset Management Co, said.

Over the past two trading days, A shares fell sharply, through the Shanghai stock market access. A share market The funds for raising funds at the bottom of the bank have increased significantly. In June 23rd, Shanghai Stock Exchange reached a new high, with a purchase price of 13 billion 90 million yuan, exceeding the 13 billion yuan purchase date of the first day of opening last year. In addition, in June 19th, Shanghai Shanghai stock exchange bought 11 billion 320 million yuan, which means that only two trading days had invested more than 24 billion yuan in A shares.

"Some large cap stocks in the A shares and the Hongkong market price difference is not large, A shares fell down, cheaper than Hong Kong stocks, through Shanghai stock exchange through the main purchase of such shares. After this round of decline, about ten stocks around A were cheaper than Hong Kong stocks, only two or three before. She pointed out.

According to the statistics of the HKEx, Shanghai stock exchange funds favored A shares mainly in banks, brokerages and so on. Blue-chip share It includes China Ping An, China Merchants Bank, CITIC Securities, Xingye Bank and Haitong Securities.

At the same time, Hongkong listed A shares ETF once again become "fragrant meat and potatoes". Southern A50 (02822.HK) announced in June 23rd that the fund recorded a net inflow of $2 billion 850 million, the largest single net inflow since the establishment of the fund. The three largest A shares ETF 23 total turnover amounted to HK $12 billion 800 million, equivalent to 9.4% of the total daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks.

　　 H shares become "value depression"

In the past 12 months, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 136%, while the Hang Seng Index has risen by only 25%, and H-share has once again become the "value depression" in the eyes of investors.

The Hang Seng AH premium index climbed to a high of 142 in June 9th, when the Hang Seng Index fell significantly behind A shares, the highest since July 2009. After several days of downgrading, the index rebounded to 130.67 in June 24th, indicating that A shares still have a 30% premium on H-shares.

Zhu Yue pointed out that although there is no bubble in A shares, some blue chip valuations are still reasonable, but some parts such as small and medium-sized boards have reached 90 times or even more than 100%, which is at an impossible level. "Compared with Hong Kong stocks, the value of Hong Kong stocks is quite obvious. With the implementation of Shenzhen Hong Kong mutual funds mutual recognition and QDII2 and other measures, the two markets will further link up, which may lead to more liquidity flowing from A shares to Hong Kong stocks, and the valuation of Hong Kong stocks will be improved and the space to catch up with A shares will be improved."

The MSCI index for market vision is included. A shares As a result, she predicts that if the proportion of initial 10-15% is incorporated, the global passive fund will have 100-150 billion US dollars to configure A shares, and the active investment fund will have 300-400 billion US dollars. Zhu Yue said frankly, compared to A shares, the daily turnover of $240 billion has little impact on the market, "these inflows mainly affect the market sentiment."

At the same time, she pointed out that the current A share growth is driven by the reform of the mainland's economic and financial markets. "The main risk of A shares lies in whether the government can guarantee a soft landing of the economy and promote economic restructuring on this basis. In addition, the demand for major export markets in Europe and the United States will be weak and affect the export of the mainland, thus forcing the Chinese government to increase the intensity of economic stimulus and temporarily delay structural adjustment."

　　 Focus on small cap, real estate, medical sector

With the introduction of measures such as Shenzhen Hong Kong mutual fund mutual recognition and QDII2, more funds are expected to flow from A shares to Hong Kong stocks, and the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has a larger room for growth.

By the end of May this year, the national / regional distribution of the Blackrock fund of China, which she participated in, showed that Hongkong accounted for 5.15%, which far exceeded the proportion of 1.87% of China's 10/40 index referring to Morgan Stanley. The total value of the fund is US $2 billion 186 million, which has risen by 36.37% over the past six months.

"As a whole, the major international public funds are still low in the Chinese market, which is about 300-600 basis points lower than the benchmark," she said. These funds need to gradually increase the allocation of the Chinese market in the future. Considering that the A share has increased in the past few months, more fund managers are more likely to allocate new funds to Hong Kong stocks. "

At present, the Chinese fund of BlackRock does not have a preference for growing or value based stocks, she said. "But we think that individual banks, real estate developers, new energy and small and medium-sized enterprises are still attractive in the H share market, and enterprises that can benefit from internal demand and structural reform also have the chance to become winners."

"Small cap stocks in the Hongkong market have long been on the valuation side of the market and have been limited by the limited liquidity of such stocks in the Hongkong market," she added. "The daily turnover of such stocks is only 500-1000 US dollars, far below the daily average turnover of 2000-5000 A shares of the same stock market. But as more and more capital flows into Hong Kong stocks, there will be a marked increase in small cap stocks in Hong Kong stocks.

UBS Securities latest report pointed out that the huge valuation gap between Hong Kong stocks and A share small cap stocks has attracted the attention of mainland investors. Investors can pay attention to the market value of Hongkong listed shares between 300 million and 2 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover in March is higher than the 6 month mean 50% above.

At the same time, she revealed that the mainland listed health care companies, real estate, insurance and new energy utilities are all the focus of the Hongkong stock market.

"But in the foreseeable future, Hong Kong stocks may not be able to return to the 2007 high position," she said. "At present, the H-share price earnings ratio is lower than the historical level, and it is expected to increase with the capital inflow pushing up the volume of transactions. P / E ratio of Hong Kong stocks It is expected to reach an average of 13 to 15 times the level. However, due to the change of the mainland's economic growth mode, the growth of GDP in the mainland will not go back to the previous high level, so the price earnings ratio of the Hong Kong stock market is also hard to return to the 2007 level.