Where Is The Way Out For China'S Stock Market?

There is only one way out for China's stock market and China's economy: reform, reform and reform.

On Wednesday, when the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3000 points, Thursday and Friday two days, the main force continued to exert force at the end of the session, and the index increased 10% by financial and military two sectors respectively.

Optimism in the market is rising again, but the volume is slightly worse.

This week, management has introduced a number of measures to stabilize the stock market and foreign exchange market and avoid financial risks.

For example, to reduce interest rates and reduce interest rates, the central bank's open market operations complement liquidity.

There are two more important rumors in the market: first, the main players on Thursday bought the financial stocks; second, the certification company raised funds again, with a quota of 1 trillion and 400 billion.

In this regard, the parties concerned do not deny that they do not recognize and support objectively many parties.

This week, of course, there are positive news of the pension market.

This week, the management continued to collect the heavy weapons from the empty side, and the CICC introduced new measures.

The most notable is the strengthening of supervision, the Commission, CITIC Securities, financial magazine and other relevant personnel were asked to assist in the investigation.

At the weekend press conference, Zhang Xiaojun, a spokesman for the securities and Futures Commission, said that 22 suspected criminal cases had been pferred to the Ministry of public security recently.

These include: first, manipulating the market case, involving the use of market value management means, and collusion with relevant traders to raise stock prices.

The two is insider trading.

The three is the use of undisclosed information paction cases, involving 6 cases.

The four is to fabricate and disseminate false information and illegal operation of securities business cases.

The past week is very critical.

After a thrilling "Minsky moment", even the US stock market has seen a thousand point drop (Dow).A share and RMB exchange rate, and has also been severely tested.

At such a time, it is understandable that the state intervenes directly in the market once again.

But this time

It shows enough effort to influence the market through policies rather than directly intervene in the market.

1, next week there are only three trading days.

Monday is not a big problem. Tuesday and Wednesday need to prevent change.

2, from the three point of this week's executive meeting of the State Council, it refers to the "real economy". While the country is growing steadily, the policy balance is clearly trying to tilt towards reform and the real economy.

This determines the general trend of A share and RMB exchange rate in the coming year.

I maintain the previous judgement, that is, A shares still have about 30% of the downward adjustment space, and the RMB exchange rate has about 10% of the downward adjustment space.

This is China's further reform.

The need for registration reform and RMB internationalization.

3, maintain the previous view: the value of A shares return to the road is relatively long, through the shock down to complete, there will be a pulse in the middle of the rebound, the bold, extreme kill capital to eat.

But the turmoil in the international market may suddenly change the trend of A shares, with a sharp fall.

At this time, there will be different levels of intervention.

But the purpose of intervention is not to maintain a certain position, but to prevent a liquidity crisis.

Therefore, the general trend of foam extrusion will not change.

4, for retail investors, my advice has always been: it's time to leave.

Don't expect a big rebound before the IPO registration system is implemented, let alone expect a reversal.

Without reform, there will be no bull market at all.