The Volatility Of The Stock Market Remains Low, And The Index Returns To The Normal Track

This is the market performance since the beginning of 2017. However, since the Shanghai Stock Exchange hit a low of 3044.29 on January 16 this year, the stock market has shown a pattern of fluctuating and rising. Up to now, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is only one step away from the previous high, namely 3301.21 on November 29 last year. In other words, the market is close to a strong pressure area, and whether an effective directional breakthrough can be formed may be determined in the new week. However, it is interesting to review the market performance in the past half year. Every time the B-share market changes in a single day, the subsequent performance of the A-share market will exceed the market expectations, and the operating center will gradually rise.

Among them, based on the analysis of market performance on October 17, 2016 and January 16, 2017, there were signs that the B-share index was killing in a single day, and the market experienced one-day panic. However, in the past several times, after the one-day decline trend of the index, the B-share market showed a pattern of shock and stability, and the A-share market showed signs of continuous upward movement of the operating center. On the afternoon of March 23 this year Class B The index also experienced a sudden decline in a single day, and the A-share market was also affected. But the next trading day, the market went out of the trend of shock and recovery, and this time, can we deduce the trend of the previous operation center to a higher level? Perhaps, in the new week, the market will reveal the answer.

Among them, the volatility of the stock market continues to be low, with a single day rise or fall of no more than 1% for several consecutive trading days, which is enough to confirm the strength of the wait-and-see sentiment of OTC funds. But, in equity market Behind the continuous downturn in volatility, it actually sends some signals to the direction of market operation. Perhaps, it will continue to be interpreted in the form of time for space, or it may indicate that a directional turning point will be formed after the market popularity drops to the freezing point, and the time point for the stock market to change is getting closer and closer.

Shanghai is strong and weak, which is a true portrayal since the fourth quarter of last year. However, judging from the recent performance of the market, there are different perspectives. Among them, the Shenzhen market rose in shock and hit a new rebound high this year. As for the Shanghai Stock Exchange, it began to show signs of large-scale rebound to a new high. At present, there is only one step away from the 3301.21 high.

On November 29 last year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 3301.21 high became an important barrier. Subsequently, the market fell back quickly, and once fell back to the low point of 3044.29. From the analysis of the factors that triggered the market decline, it has an inseparable relationship with the extinction of insurance assets. However, after four months Insurance capital adjustment With the gradual implementation of reform and supervision, some insurance institutions gradually returned to their main business and gradually formed a standardized operation mode. As for the recent rectification of the name of insurance assets by the CIRC, it also seems to signal that the investment in insurance assets is gradually returning to normal, which largely eliminates the market's concern about the long-term extinction of insurance assets, which is also a positive signal.

This year, in the context of curbing asset bubbles, the probability of stock market and property market soaring and plummeting has been further reduced, but the key is still to maintain the stability of the market. However, for the A-share market, although there is no expectation of a big market, under the influence of factors such as the recovery of market fundamentals, the repair of technical aspects, and the recovery of investment popularity, we can still expect to achieve a phased pattern of steady growth.

However, in the setting environment where leverage funds' leverage influence drops sharply, the willingness of new liquidity inflows is not strong, and asset bubbles are suppressed, even though the market forms a directional breakthrough, the space for the stock market to rise significantly is still limited. Once there is a situation of sustained acceleration of the rise, it is likely to be suppressed again by the policy, which will enable the index to return to normal operation, The best result may be to maintain a stable and rising market.

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