Looking At The Trend Of Textile Market After High Turnover Of Cotton

Excerpts from viewpoints

I. status quo

Cotton supply and volume price rose.

Cotton yarn consumption is active.

Two, spring is coming. What are the factors that support it?

The policy of spring breeze strikes the textile enterprises.

The impact of Sino US trade negotiations has weakened and overall expectations are improving.

Orders for printing and dyeing are revival and prices are rising.

Three, market view

Listen to optimistic, neutral and pessimistic groups.

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Since March, the gold and silver four, which has long been expected in the domestic textile market, has finally arrived.

Throughout the recent spot market, whether the upstream raw material paction or cotton yarn sales, volume and price have been rising frequently, giving the market certain support.

I. status quo

Cotton supply and volume price rose.

Judging from the raw material procurement in the upstream cotton market, turnover has increased significantly since March, and the turnover trend has also experienced a shift from volume to price rise.

Before the end of February, the domestic spot market was indeed in the doldrums, which was affected by the drop in the price of cotton and the expiration of import quotas. Cotton trading was active, but it helped some quota spinning enterprises to replenish their raw materials.

As time went on, before we could lament the slack of the domestic spot market, the cotton spot market came back in just a few days.

It turned out to be true.

In March 8th, a purchasing director of a textile enterprise in Shandong who wanted to buy Cotton said that the price of lint of the 3128B grade released by China cotton net in March 4th was 15100-15200 yuan / ton in Hebei and Shandong. The market had no such price in a few days, and there was no regret at that time.

In March 11th, the price of real estate cotton in the the Yellow River River Basin was 15300-15400 yuan / ton, or 300 yuan per ton in a week.

On the same day, the mainstream price of "double 28" Xinjiang hand picked cotton was 15800-16100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of Xinjiang cotton picking machine at the same level was 15400-15500 yuan / ton, and the quotation was strong.

Cotton yarn consumption is active.

From the perspective of the downstream cotton yarn sales market, although the momentum is not as aggressive as cotton, the rise of yarn price may still be exploratory stage, but the inquiry purchase of gray fabric enterprises has increased significantly, and the shipment of cotton yarn is faster than the earlier stage. It is also an indisputable fact. Especially, the 32 and 40 middle and low end yarn generally reflect that goods are better than high-end yarn.

At present, the price of C32 branch has gradually stood at more than 23000 yuan / ton, and the price of JC40S has steadily risen to 26550 yuan / ton, compared with that in February, there was an increase of nearly 100 yuan per ton.

There are also textile enterprises, said that the volume just now up, not yet intended to raise prices.

However, the overall textile market is slowly reviving, and yarn inventory decline has also eased the pressure on textile enterprises. Later market price rises or rises will also be determined by downstream consumption.

Two, spring is coming. What are the factors that support it?

In 2019, the market environment of cotton textile has changed in a subtle way. Although the textile industry may still face the problem of rising recruitment costs, the recent frequent introduction of favorable policies, as well as a large number of cotton turnover, is like a warm breeze blowing, which makes people feel that the spring of the cotton textile market has come.

What are the factors that support it?

The policy of spring breeze strikes the textile enterprises.

First of all, we should deepen the reform of value-added tax and reduce the value added tax rate by 3%.

Some agencies expect that it can save about 200 yuan per ton for enterprises.

Superposition of banks, targeted reduction, small and micro enterprises loan support, reduce the enterprise electricity price and other multi-faceted benefit policy, more practical and practical to reduce the cash flow pressure of enterprises, improve the cash flow of enterprises, and inject new impetus to the enterprise guarantee and active market.

These measures are like the spring breeze, which gives the market warmth and practical strength.

The impact of Sino US trade negotiations has weakened and overall expectations are improving.

The trade friction between China and the United States has lasted for nearly 10 months, and the impact of the market has been gradually digested. Textile enterprises have their own coping strategies. Domestic enterprises are basically running steadily, and only part of the enterprises with export business may be affected.

It is understood that China's textile and clothing imports and exports grew steadily for two consecutive years, but in February 2019, the export volume of textile and clothing dropped considerably.

Some organizations speculate that it may be the risk of Spring Festival holidays and the risk of enterprises avoiding evading tariffs, which may not reflect the recent real export situation.

Orders for printing and dyeing are revival and prices are rising.

Since the beginning of March, the news of the revival of printing and dyeing factories has been coming continuously in Guangdong and Keqiao, and the market is relatively lively.

Traders in Guangdong also say that the list has increased in recent years.

It has been reported that the printing and dyeing enterprises in Fujian have started the "first shot" of the price increase after the Spring Festival. Although the cost increase is a factor that can not be ignored, the market supply is insufficient, and the price increase may also be a market behavior. At the same time, it can basically explain the activity level of the grey cloth market.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the storage of enterprises is 34.8 days, a decrease of 0.1 days, a decrease of 15.1 days compared with the previous three years.

Three, market view

To this end, the Chinese cotton network reporter interviewed several enterprises of different sizes, and they expounded their different views on the future.

Optimism: in the past month, yarn sales have been improved. Cotton prices have increased significantly, and the market price has risen by 500 yuan / ton.

As textile enterprises are expecting much of the reserve cotton wheel, the raw material inventory has not been prepared in the early stage, and at present, the gold and silver four of the cotton textile industry is coming, and the inventory of textile enterprises has fallen rapidly. Most enterprises are facing the need to fill up the stock of raw materials, and the quantity of cotton purchased in the market has increased sharply, causing a small climax of purchasing. This craze is expected to last for some time, and it will not end in a flash in the pan.

Neutral: Sino US trade friction is still a difficult road.

At present, the market is stable and well functioning. The result of tax reduction and tariff reduction may eventually be Marketization - commodity price reduction, but it will take some time.

In addition, the March 19th national cotton market monitoring system report pointed out that although the Sino US trade negotiations are moving towards a moderating trend, there are still many uncertainties.

It remains to be concluded that the situation remains to be observed.

Pessimism: solving employment is the first step. Rising costs lead to pressure escalation.

The problem of textile employment is difficult to solve for a long time, which has greatly increased the cost of labor and offset some good benefits, thus increasing the burden on enterprises and affecting the start-up of enterprises.

Under such circumstances, some enterprises have to face upgrading and upgrading.

This part of enterprises said that Sino US trade negotiations have become accustomed to, and the problem of employee turnover is increasing.