How Long Is The PTA Accident Overhaul Good For The High Base Differential?

Recently, there are frequent failures in the maintenance of PTA outside the facility. With the parking of Jiangyin's Hon bang and Tong Kun petrochemical companies, Sichuan's energy chemical industry (Shengda), which has just made excellent products in May 25th, has also been shut down by accident. At the same time, the Hua Bin petrochemical plant has joined the parking ranks. It seems that there is still a glimmer of light in the pure darkness.

chart 12019 Annual profit comparison chart

Source: lung Chung

Although Saudi Arabia said that OPEC+ will commit itself to stabilizing the oil market in the second half of the year, its worries about global trade risks have worsened, economic data has not performed well, and the US crude oil stock has risen to a new high in the past two years, and the US crude oil output has also remained high, leading to a "roller coaster" crash on international oil prices. Therefore, the positive effects of OPEC's reduction in production and the negative mood of Global trade are two important factors in the current market. By the end of June 5th, naphtha cracking spreads had dropped to around $18, a decrease of 29 US dollars in the same period last month, or 61.70 percentage points. The PX-N spread was 342 US dollars, down 2 US dollars, or 0.58 percentage points. According to the PX-N price difference of US $300, there is still room for compression in the PX profit, but the naphtha cracking spreads are already low.

surface 1 PTA Supply and demand balance forecast

Unit: 10000 tons

As of June 6th, according to the capacity of 50 million 290 thousand tons, the PTA utilization rate was 75.29%, which was reduced by 11.3 percentage points by 2 million 200 thousand tons in Jiangyin, 1 million 500 thousand tons in Tong Kun, 1 million tons in Sichuan and 1 million 400 thousand tons in Hua Bin. Judging from the sudden stop of several sets of devices, it can be judged that due to the continuous increase in weather temperature, the device has a short fault. Of course, it does not exclude the phenomenon of overload production. But overall, the supply of PTA is still relatively high. If there is no other device overhauling, it is estimated that the PTA output will reach 3 million 830 thousand tons in June. But there are also reports that the 2 million 200 thousand HP equipment in Jiangyin is facing an annual overhaul in the near future, and the specific information remains to be announced.

There is still uncertainty on the maintenance of most polyester units in the downstream polyester plant in June. The planned maintenance of the ancient channel in June has been postponed. It is estimated that the output of polyester in June is about 4 million 170 thousand tons, and there will be no sudden change in equipment in the later stage.

On the whole, PTA plant accident repair is good reappearance, and the spot circulation pattern is tight to ease the market decline, the basis continues strong. However, the demand for terminal market is weak, and the inventory of grey fabric has been mainly on the 40 day, while polyester production and marketing have returned to light. Long Zhong information thinks: the PTA factory overhauls or can cause the spot market price to stop, but the trade risk still exists, and without obvious good support, the medium and long term PTA market is still weak.