What Are The New Trends Of China'S Economy In 2016?

The central economic work conference held in from December 18th to 21st has made clear plans for next year's economic situation, key points of steady growth, tactical tasks of structural reform, important areas of reform, people's livelihood and open strategy.

The meeting stressed that stabilizing the economic growth should pay more attention to the structural reform of supply side.

Look at the situation: under the new normal, we are facing good challenges but facing difficulties and challenges.

The meeting pointed out the recognition of the overall situation facing China's economy.

Adapting to the new normal and leading the new normal is the great logic of China's economic development in the current and future period. This is a major judgement of the comprehensive analysis of the long cycle of the world economy and the characteristics and interaction of China's development.

The meeting held that, on the one hand, China's economic development is basically good, with great potential, strong resilience and large room for maneuver. On the other hand, it also faces many difficulties and challenges, especially structural overcapacity.

Jia Kang, the former director of the Finance Research Institute of the Ministry of Finance and President of the new supply Economics Research Institute of China, pointed out that the central economic work conference's judgment on the economic situation clearly pointed out that while China's overall economic growth and employment are resilient, it must also endure the pains of structural adjustment.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, said that we should see the positive results of economic stability and progress, increase confidence in the future work, see risks and uncertainties, and keep the good momentum of steady progress.

Under the guidance of the new normal of economic development,

Although growth has slowed down, the development pays more attention to improving the quality and efficiency of development.

In the first three quarters of this year, China's GDP grew by 6.9% over the same period last year.

The proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the formulation of the thirteenth five year plan for national economic and social development, issued in early November, puts forward that in the next five years, China's economy will maintain the goal of rapid growth, and the average annual growth of the economy from 2016 to 2020 will be above 6.5%.

For the growth momentum behind the figures, the meeting stressed that promoting structural reforms on the supply side is a major innovation to adapt and lead the new normal economic development. It is an active choice to adapt to the new situation of the comprehensive national strength competition after the international financial crisis and is an inevitable requirement to adapt to the new normal of China's economic development.

Specifically, the central economic work conference has put forward five major policy pillars to strengthen the supply side structural reform.

First, macroeconomic policies should be stable, and a stable macroeconomic environment for structural reform should be built; two, industrial policies must be accurate and accurately positioned for structural reform; the three is micro policies to live, improve the market environment, stimulate enterprise vitality and consumer potential; four, reform policies should be practical, and more efforts should be made to promote the reform to fall; five, social policy should be the bottom line and the bottom line of people's livelihood.

Li Zuojun, deputy director of the Institute of resources and environmental policy of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that China's economy is still in the process of bottom finding in 2016.

The central authorities put forward the structural reform of the supply side. The ultimate goal is to foster a new driving force for economic development, which is consistent with steady growth in the medium to long term.

More emphasis on supply side structural reform in order to stabilize economic growth, and what is the relationship with people's lives? "The establishment of supply side structural reform means that we will pay more attention to the supply of new consumption patterns around the people."

Zhu Ping, researcher and deputy general manager of Guangdong Development Fund, believes that the structural reform of supply side is closely related to the people. New consumption and services will become another driving force for economic growth, and the proportion of China's GDP will gradually increase in the future.

Look at reform: highlight the four major areas of state-owned enterprises, finance, taxation, finance and social security.

To accomplish the five tasks of capacity, inventory, leverage, cost reduction and compensation, we must deepen reform in an all-round way.

The central economic work conference suggested that we should intensify reform in key areas and key links and launch a number of reform measures with significant traction.

Reporters summed up the comb, the reform proposed by the conference focused on four areas: Reform of state-owned enterprises, tax reform, financial reform and social security reform.

In the reform of state-owned enterprises, the meeting proposed to speed up the restructuring and establishment of state-owned capital investment and operation companies, and speed up the reform of monopoly industries.

In the reform of Finance and taxation, the meeting proposed to speed up the key issues such as dividing the central and local powers and responsibilities, improving the local tax system, strengthening local development capacity and lightening the burden of enterprises.

In the financial reform, the meeting put forward the stock market as soon as possible to form a complete financing function, a solid foundation system, effective market supervision, and full protection of investors' legitimate rights and interests.

In the reform of social security, the meeting put forward that we should improve personal accounts, insist on actuarial balance, improve the level of co-ordination, and accelerate the reform of the medical and health system, so as to solve the problem of the difficulty and high cost of seeing a doctor.

Many experts say the deepening of the reform in these four fields will make the specific economic development task and the structural reform of the supply side form a closed loop to promote the long-term healthy development of the economy.

Look at tasks: five key points in tactics

The task of structural reform of China's economy in 2016 will be very heavy.

This central economic work conference has made arrangements for "strategy" and "tactics". Strategically, we must stick to steady progress and grasp the rhythm and strength. We must grasp the key points in tactics, and grasp the five major tasks: capacity production, inventory elimination, deleveraging, cost reduction and compensation.

In actively and steadily resolving the problem of overcapacity, the meeting put forward the proper handling of the relationship between maintaining social stability and promoting structural reform, as far as possible merger and reorganization, less bankruptcy and liquidation, doing well the resettlement of workers, and demanding strict control over increments to prevent new overcapacity.

In helping enterprises to reduce costs, the meeting proposed to reduce the cost of real economy enterprises action, play the "combination of boxing."

Among them, we should reduce institutional paction costs, social insurance premiums, enterprise financial costs, electricity prices and logistics costs.

In resolving the problem of real estate inventory, the meeting proposed that we should speed up the citizenization of migrant workers, expand effective demand, open up supply and demand channels, digest inventory and stabilize the real estate market.

At the same time, it also proposes to expand public rental housing to non registered population, encourage real estate development enterprises to reduce prices, and abolish outdated restrictive measures.

In expanding effective supply, the conference put forward a new path from the perspective of poverty alleviation, support for technological upgrading, cultivation of various kinds of innovation, infrastructure construction, workers' adaptation to the market and agricultural production.

In the aspect of guarding against financial risks, the conference proposed to deal with credit default, resolve local government debt risks effectively, and strengthen all-round supervision.

Liu Yuanchun, executive director of the national development and Reform Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said that the central authorities put forward structural reforms on the supply side, which involved the adjustment of "zombie enterprises", highly indebted enterprises and excess capacity enterprises.

This adjustment focuses more on the healthy and sustainable development of the medium and long term economy, rather than dealing with short-term economic fluctuations.

In response to the above five major tactical tasks, Li Zuojun said that these tasks are interrelated: this year, through the government's decentralization and decentralization, "public entrepreneurship and universal innovation" have achieved remarkable results. Next year, while continuing to implement the innovation driven strategy in depth, a very important task is to combine backward elimination of production capacity and promotion of entrepreneurial innovation.

"All kinds of resources occupied by botnets, including credit, land and so on, can be directed to new industries under the guidance of the government.

Li Zuojun said.