Cotton Market: Global Cotton Supply And Demand Balance?

From the logic and root of the big logic, the price of the market is up or down, and it does not depend on a simple fundamental analysis.

Can we have a policy adjustment in the coming time to supply more cotton to the consumer market? This is a big logic for us to look at the market.

Whether or not to change or not is likely to be beyond our imagination or need any explanation or reason. We only hope that we should not cut the leek repeatedly.

The global consumption has been increased by 220 thousand tons.

But China's consumption has been raised by 330 thousand tons.

If China is eliminated, global consumption will drop by 100 thousand tons.

Although there is confidence in the increase in domestic consumption, according to the current high cost of cotton, raw materials are not competitive, how can consumption be increased? Another way of thinking is that although there is cotton consumption demand, supply ports are restricted, and cotton is also needed for consumption.

Our cotton is notched or surplus, most of which depends on the government's policy.

Then, the reason why the US cotton rose sharply after the report may be due to the influence of China and India.

On the logic of upstream and downstream conduction, the first thing to see is the rise in cotton prices, followed by the price rise of cotton yarn. Finally, we see that the cotton cloth and downstream are not following or lagging behind.

Raw materials are too expensive. Our cotton mill's profit has gone from high profit to low profit, and now there is no profit and loss.

At the same time, the high cost of raw materials makes the price and price of yarn become very high, which leads to the beginning of imports.

In this way, we have seen the momentum of domestic and international developments.

Of course, if we assume that throwing and storing is very strong, then, for example, fifty thousand tons of supply per day, or extending the storage time, then the enthusiasm of our factory will be eased, and the price of cotton may cool down and the yarn price will drop.

If, therefore, the reserves can be very strong, there will be a reversal of direction, which will probably become a continuous decline in cotton prices and cotton yarn, and even to the international cotton yarn and cotton prices.

At that time, we talked about increasing consumption.

Money supply and the impact of money on the market, I would like to be concerned about the futures of friends are very profound, this is not the two or three day impact on the disk, their overall entry and exit caused a very large systemic risk, and the huge amount of money, resulting in the market volatility is also huge, and sometimes out of the past month, or even half a year's market, terror.

There is no doubt that cotton has once again become a star commodity, which has attracted more attention.

How long is the general inventory period of cotton traders? How long does it affect the production inventory? Multi funds can be passed by a margin of 7%.

Conduction, locking 100% of the goods, resulting in widened spreads, where is the limit?

The second question is what kind of release process cotton is going to store and what kind of release process it will take. From the perspective of hedging, the price of the storage is also rising, but the margin is far less than that of futures. Then, the futures price is much higher than the spot price, or the basis of the cotton prices. The larger the base, the higher the price can be for buying the spot, because there is a higher futures price as a hedging, thus forming a complete hedging.

Then, when futures fall, the speed is faster than the spot. Then, if futures fall, it is the best time for the cotton to flow out. The process of the big difference is a good opportunity for the cotton traders to ship. There is no fixed cycle.

But this year, from filming storage,

And futures prices rose at the same time, futures rose very fast, there was no good opportunity to release cotton, or sell to the market, and money can be made, in this case, the faster the futures rise, the more cotton buyers buy cotton, because the basis of this cotton is very attractive.

But in the end, once the basis is returned, whether the futures fall or the spot rise, the spot will be released.

After that, there are likely to be many more events on the disk, which will cause double pressure on the market to sell the goods and sell the national reserves.

About the trend of cotton prices in India, in fact, before and after the high, almost happened in the past every year.

Because India's support for the agricultural product chain is limited, the financial system and financing are not enough, and the financing capability of the intermediate enterprises is relatively poor. Therefore, in the season of listing, cotton is often the lowest in the world because of the centralized supply.

With the massive export of cotton, consumption and supply should gradually be inadequate.

In the later stage, they will find that the supply is insufficient, and then they will import a lot, which will become the highest price in the world.

But this year's gains are relatively large and relatively early.

In the first two years, India also started the policy of purchasing and storing. The difference was that the minimum protection price was used, such as less than 62 cents.

In 15, as Pakistan and Bangladesh experienced a big reduction in production, a large number of purchases of India cotton and India cotton produced excessive exports and almost no storage.

India has no import restrictions and is now importing from Pakistan and other countries.

This year, India has also reached 90 cents, and the actual import is about 80.

Most of India's enterprises are relatively small, and their financing and import capabilities are not that big.

It is not like domestic quotas, nor is it cheap enough to import. This is the problem of money and time. India has always had such a problem.

In the early days, many enterprises imported cotton, but now there is a process of arrival.

Then there will be some relief.

Besides, the India cotton merchants' hedging is also set as a basis for the domestic trade, but it can not be sold.

India's import and export opportunities for us cotton are the direct cause of the US cotton surge.

China has indirectly promoted the international market through imported yarn.

As a result, the export price of India's cotton yarn is blocked up, and factories continue to stop and imagine.